Mkhaimar Abusada, a professor of political science at al-Azhar University in Gaza, comments on the current hostilities.. - In an interview with BitterLemons.org


bitterlemons: To what extent do you feel the start of the current hostilities in Gaza was the result of domestic politics on either side.

Abusada: It was Israel that breached the tahdiya [calm] on November 4. I would venture that there were some domestic considerations behind this. Since Ehud Barak is the minister of defense and Barak's Labor party is doing very badly in Israeli public opinion with many polls showing it will be the main loser in Israeli elections, maybe he was trying to boost his reputation by launching an operation in Gaza.

bitterlemons: But do you not think the ceasefire is in the interests of both sides?

Abusada: Yes, it is. For Israel, the calm means that the political divisions between Hamas and Fateh, the West Bank and Gaza Strip, will deepen. At the same time, Israel faces a dilemma. On the one hand, it has no answer to the rocket fire from the Gaza Strip. On the other, Israel is not in a position to launch a comprehensive military operation against Gaza for a number of reasons: first, it would mean re-uniting the Gaza Strip and the West Bank under Mahmoud Abbas, which Israel does not want since the current situation is an excuse for Israel to stay away from a political agreement with Abbas. The second is that it would simply be too costly, and Israel is not ready for this.

Hamas is also very interested in the calm. Over the past five months, the movement has consolidated its grip on power over the Gaza Strip. It has been able to impose order and end the lawlessness of some major families here. It is the calm that has enabled the movement to concentrate its efforts on exercising its power here.

bitterlemons: But if both sides are interested in the calm, then why have these low-level hostilities continued for nearly a month, accompanied by the tight closure on the Gaza Strip?

Abusada: It doesn't make a lot of sense. Israel said its original operation here was an effort to protect itself from what it said was a plan to capture Israeli soldiers. I think Israel acted to defend its soldiers, but that doesn't mean it isn't interested in the ceasefire. Israel could have let certain incidents in the past month pass to calm the situation, but we must also note that Israel has not resorted to assassinating political leaders or to any major incursion. What Israel is doing, which is very harmful, is collectively punishing Gazans by closing the commercial crossings. I think this is a way Israel sees as still keeping the door open to a resumption of the calm.

bitterlemons: To what extent do you think both sides are engaged in a kind of negotiation over the terms of extending the ceasefire?

Abusada: The calm expires on December 18 and the Palestinian resistance groups will meet to decide whether they want to renew the ceasefire. They will look at a number of factors: One is whether Israel violated the ceasefire agreement, which they all feel Israel did by closing the commercial crossings. The other factor is whether it is in the interest of the Palestinian people to have continued calm.

My sense is the groups will want to extend the ceasefire. The situation here in Gaza is very tough as a result of the siege. We've been in this situation for 26 days and it is very grave. Since the Palestinian groups are taking the national interests of the people into consideration I believe they will want continued calm

But there is another problem, which is that Egypt, which mediated the original ceasefire agreement, is not keen on doing so again. Cairo is very angry with Hamas for boycotting the national dialogue last month. The Egyptians also feel that both Israel and the Palestinian factions, including Hamas, have violated the ceasefire agreement, so I don't think Egypt is keen on playing the mediator again.

bitterlemons: You mention that it's in Israel's interest to have continued calm, but does Israel also want to change the terms of the ceasefire?

Abusada: Yes. We are approaching the end of the current agreement and I think by closing the commercial crossings, Israel is trying to change the terms of any renewed agreement in two ways: Israel wants Hamas to end any tunnel digging along the Israeli border, and Israel wants Hamas to stop military training. I am not sure, however, if these conditions will be met.

bitterlemons: Do you think Israel wants to include a deal for Gilad Shalit in any renewed agreement?

Abusada: Israel would love to include Shalit in any renewed deal, but this is a complicated issue and I don't think Hamas is ready to give up on Shalit. Palestinians have paid a very high price for the capture of Shalit. Unless Israel releases the prisoners Hamas is asking for I don't think Hamas will back down and we will see Shalit freed or even part of any renewed ceasefire deal.- Published 1/12/2008 © bitterlemons.org